The impact of attribute-based corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards: preliminary findings

This report is the first rigorous analysis of the economic impacts of current legislative proposals to raise CAFE under the reformed “attribute-based” structure. Whereas historic CAFE standards set one standard for every automaker, the reformed system fundamentally alters the impact of the standards on individual companies. Under the reformed CAFE structure, which applies to light trucks starting next year and is the leading proposal under discussion in Congress, each vehicle is assigned a fuel economy target based on vehicle attributes. Light truck targets are a function of the truck’s “footprint” – that is, the area defined by the truck’s wheels. Each automaker’s truck CAFE target will be a sales-weighted average of the targets for its truck models – automakers that market larger vehicles will face a less stringent standard.Energy Foundationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/55396/1/99824.pd

The economics of road safety: an international perspective

This report examines some recent explanations for the rising road fatality rates in developing countries. A key insight of these recent studies is that road fatalities per capita follow a Kuznets curve (an inverted-U shaped pattern with rising income per capita). The rising fatalities per capita in developing countries can be expected to reach a peak and then fall. However, if present trends continue, the already high fatality rates in developing countries could rise for several years before peaking. The report adopts the road fatalities Kuznets curve as a framework, and decomposes the per capita fatality rate into two terms that are multiplied together: vehicles per capita and fatalities per vehicle. Reducing either term, holding the other fixed, would lower fatalities per capita. Reducing motorization (vehicles per capita) is unlikely to be used as a policy to reduce fatalities because it is inextricably linked to economic growth. Consequently, the focus should be on reducing fatalities per vehicle. The report concludes with an economic analysis of the costs and benefits of using new vehicle technologies to reduce fatalities per vehicle in developing countries. To illustrate potential benefits, the report estimates the number of lives that could be saved in China and India as functions of the rate of improvement in fatalities per vehicle.The University of Michigan Strategic Worldwide Transportation 2020http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/61190/1/99864.pd

Can proactive fuel economy strategies help automakers mitigate fuel-price risks?

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/55389/1/99823.pd

Quasi-local first law of black-hole dynamics

A property well known as the first law of black hole is a relation among infinitesimal variations of parameters of stationary black holes. We consider a dynamical version of the first law, which may be called the first law of black hole dynamics. The first law of black hole dynamics is derived without assuming any symmetry or any asymptotic conditions. In the derivation, a definition of dynamical surface gravity is proposed. In spherical symmetry it reduces to that defined recently by one of the authors (SAH).Comment: Latex, 8 pages; version to appear in Class. Quantum Gra

Sexual behaviour in Britain: partnerships, practices, and HIV risk behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Sexual behaviour is a major determinant of sexual and reproductive health. We did a National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000) in 1999-2001 to provide population estimates of behaviour patterns and to compare them with estimates from 1990-91 (Natsal 1990). METHODS: We did a probability sample survey of men and women aged 16-44 years who were resident in Britain, using computer-assisted interviews. Results were compared with data from respondents in Natsal 1990. FINDINGS: We interviewed 11161 respondents (4762 men, 6399 women). Patterns of heterosexual and homosexual partnership varied substantially by age, residence in Greater London, and marital status. In the past 5 years, mean numbers of heterosexual partners were 3.8 (SD 8.2) for men, and 2.4 (SD 4.6) for women; 2.6% (95% CI 2.2-3.1) of both men and women reported homosexual partnerships; and 4.3% (95% CI 3.7-5.0) of men reported paying for sex. In the past year, mean number of new partners varied from 2.04 (SD 8.4) for single men aged 25-34 years to 0.05 (SD 0.3) for married women aged 35-44 years. Prevalence of many reported behaviours had risen compared with data from Natsal 1990. Benefits of greater condom use were offset by increases in reported partners. Changes between surveys were generally greater for women than men and for respondents outside London. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides updated estimates of sexual behaviour patterns. The increased reporting of risky sexual behaviours is consistent with changing cohabitation patterns and rising incidence of sexually transmitted infections. Observed differences between Natsal 1990 and Natsal 2000 are likely to result from a combination of true change and greater willingness to report sensitive behaviours in Natsal 2000 due to improved survey methodology and more tolerant social attitudes

Improving COPD Care at the University of North Carolina Internal Medicine Outpatient Clinic

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease has encouraged symptom assessment for all chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients and pulmonary rehabilitation for COPD patients with high symptom burden and risk of exacerbations. Pulmonary rehabilitation has been shown to improve their symptoms, quality of life, and exercise tolerance and to reduce readmissions and mortality in patients with a recent exacerbation (≤4 weeks from prior hospitalization). However, many patients never have the opportunity to take advantage of pulmonary rehabilitation because systematic ways of assessing symptoms, identifying symptomatic patients, and referring those who would benefit from pulmonary rehabilitation are lacking. In the University of North Carolina general medicine clinic, symptom assessment and pulmonary rehabilitation referrals were not done prior to this effort. The project’s primary goal was to systematically screen for dyspnea symptoms during all COPD patient encounters, with secondary goals of improving rates of screening for hypoxia, referrals to pulmonary rehabilitation in symptomatic patients, and documentation in the electronic health record

Fixing Detroit: how far, how fast, how fuel efficient

The Automotive Industry Crisis of 2009 is the worst the industry has ever experienced. This paper helps resolve the debate on how much and fast it should change and how it should it respond to demands for increased fuel efficiency. Looking at the actions of successful corporate turnarounds, the lessons are very clear: implement broad, deep, fast change, replace the management team, and transform the culture. We modeled the impacts of different fuel economy standards on profitability and sales, using the most accepted estimates of all the key parameters, and conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis on the key parameters. The impact of higher fuel economy standards on industry profits is very clear: increasing fuel economy 30% to 50% (35 MPG to 40.5 MPG) would increase the Detroit 3’s gross profits by roughly $3 billion per year, and increase sales by the equivalent of two large assembly plants. The sensitivity analysis showed our findings are very robust. The overall risk and reward profile is very positive, with only a small chance of losing and a very large probability of gain.Energy Foundationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63024/1/102298.pd

Alternative powertrain strategies and fleet turnover in the 21st century

The changes taking place in the global automotive industry related to alternative powertrains and fuels are affecting each country or region differently. Each country or region has its own policies in place to monitor and manage vehicle fuel consumption and emissions. Countries or regions also have different numbers of new vehicles sold annually and the total numbers of vehicles in their fleets. This analysis looks at the current and future direction of alternative powertrains/fuels across four developed economies (United States, Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea) and four developing economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in order to measure the impact of increasing the number of alternative powertrains/fuels in their fleets. In particular, the analysis looks at the how much of each country’s fleet will turn over to vehicles based only on alternative powertrains/fuels by 2050 by introducing three different alternative powertrain/fuel models (less aggressive, moderately aggressive, and very aggressive). A less aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of 60 percent or more for most countries, a moderately aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of over 80 percent for most countries, and a very aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of nearly 90 percent or more for most countries.The University of Michigan Sustainable Worldwide Transportation, Ann Arbor, Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78001/1/102673.pd

Views and experiences of men who have sex with men on the ban on blood donation: a cross sectional survey with qualitative interviews

Objective To explore compliance with the UK blood services’ criterion that excludes men who have had penetrative sex with a man from donating blood, and to assess the possible effects of revising this policy